How does the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic compare in severity to other recent disease outbreaks? We gathered data from existing studies to put 2019-nCov into context.


The figures below illustrate variability both among and within recent outbreaks of zoonotic pathogens, including:


We compare these outbreaks using key epidemiological parameters, such as:


For detailed information on the estimates presented below, click here.



How infectious is 2019-nCoV?


Estimates of the basic reproduction number (\(R_0\)): the average number of new infections that are caused by one infectious person, assuming the whole population is susceptible. This value can differ based on setting, e.g. it is likely higher in more crowded places, or can vary between children and adults.




How long does it take to develop symptoms?


Estimates of incubation period: the number of days between pathogen exposure and the onset of symptoms.




How quickly does transmission occur?


Estimates of the serial interval: the number of days between the onset of symptoms in one case and the onset of symptoms in a subsequent case.




What percent of cases result in…?


No Symptoms


Estimates of the percent of individuals who are asymptomatic.

Fever


Estimates of the percent of symptomatic patients that present with a fever.

Cough


Estimates of the percent of symptomatic patients that present with a cough.

Death


Estimates of the percent of symptomatic patients that die from their illness.